BC,DC and AC!

If you are wondering if these are the different types of current,they are not.

BC stands for before Corona
DC stands for during Corona &
AC stands for after Corona.

Before this pandemic triggered the various Governments to lock-down entire countries,we had one economic reality,that has now completely changed obviously.

We are currently in DC(during Corona):

A lot of people are comparing this to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic or the great depression but very few have compared this to the 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic that killed around 116 thousand people in the United States,in fact the FED that is releasing trillions of stimulus now did not even mention it back then.

"In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States."

Corona is way overblown in my opinion,the panic is because of the lack of reliable data and absence of any cure.The fact that even the WHO continues to change its stance regarding something as basic as masks is leading to a quite a lot of trepidation.

We are in a recession and it's not because of Corona it is because of how the Governments have reacted to it and we were probably due for one anyway.

Should we have shutdown the economy?

Now that we have a 'selective' shutdown,is it even effective and to what extent if we have poor implementation and rogue citizens who do not care?

Is it worth the economic cost and for how long?

If we can operate grocery shops,why can't others operate with proper safety?

How long this will last is anyone's guess,but certain stocks/sectors which are deemed essential and are able to function may do well in this phase.Many are proclaiming that these will be the leaders of the bull market that ensues,maybe or maybe not.

Sectors that are currently considered safe now are:

1.Healthcare
2.Chemicals
3.FMCG
4.Telecom
5.Cloud

Do keep in mind that most of these companies are not operating at full blast,

so while they may be allowed to operate,profitability still may be hit.

The Government response to this economic catastrophe has been far from adequate.

As I have always believed that market will present opportunities on both sides,long as well as short,pick your poison and go ahead.

This is also the time to be ruthless in culling any portfolio stock which you feel cannot survive,since many stocks are down,you may churn your portfolio towards stronger companies.

The sectors that have extreme negativity are:

1.Cinema,Travel and tourism.
2.Real estate especially commercial.
3.Banks/NBFC's.

Be very careful in extrapolating things we see now to eternity,

while the world may have changed,we need to see how things will change.

Finally we have come to AC(after Corona):

Will this completely go away(very unlikely in my opinion) or will it return every year like the flu?,we will have to get ready to deal with this like other adversities.

Coming to investing,this crisis may purge away many of the weak companies,investable universe continues to shrink as fewer companies remain and those who remain may be in a position to grab the market share.

This has also brought to the fore,the importance of asset allocation.

From an investors perspective,congratulations that you have made it this far,learn from this and find your niche.

Investing is not about being part of a crowd,If you go wrong the markets are brutal and sometimes even when you are right the markets will test you and always remember that no one is going to feel sorry for you,so don't feel sorry for yourself,keep your head held high,work hard and smart...be positive.